StatWatch November 2018: The New Normal?

By Emerson Schwartzkopf

(Note: This report is a month late, courtesy of the U.S. government funding impasse in December 2018-January 2019.)

The roller coaster keeps going down on quartz-surface imports from China – but how low will it all go?

The 3.1 million ft² in Chinese quartz surfaces hitting U.S. docks in November 2018 is a massive decline from the all-time high of 12.9 million ft² only a few months prior in August, according to Stone Update analysis of surface-import data from the U.S. International Trade Commission.

The drop is part of the rolling readjustment of the hard-surfaces market in light of general Trump-administration tariffs and an unfair-trade petition by U.S. manufacturer Cambria. Possible retroactive tariff assessments of 300%-plus still could cause havoc if approved this spring.

Quartz Slabs

It’s no surprise that shipments of Chinese quartz surfaces tapered off in the light of massive duties proposed as part of Cambria’s petition. November 2018’s 3.1 million ft² is 47.5% less than November 2017. It’s also the smallest monthly amount of 2018r for China (lower than April’s 4.7 million ft²), and the least received in the United States since the 2.9 million ft² in March 2017.

Of the other four major (>500,000 ft²) quartz-surface exporters in November 2018, only India increased its shipments (1.6 million ft², +173.8%) from the same time in 2017. Spain and Canada saw nominal drops of 1% or less, but Israel’s 636,806 ft² is a 45.1% decline from November 2017.

The amount of the critical-circumstances tariffs on Chinese quartz surfaces – the duties assessed retroactively to material imported 90 days prior to the U.S. Commerce Department’s ruling – became slightly clearer. Stone Update’s preliminary estimate, based on declared customs values, is roughly $140.3 million. Based on an average 300% for the proposed retroactive tariffs, that’s a possible assessment of $420.9 million this spring.

Worked Granite

There’s happier news with worked (sawn, one side polished) granite heading into the United States. November 2018 shipments totaled 127,612 metric tons – a hefty 24.9% increase from the same time in 2017.

Brazil accounted for nearly all of the bump-up, with its 64,294 metric tons in November 2018 beating the previous year’s mark by 31.6%. China and India showed year-to-year declines (-3.1% and-7.0%, respectively, while Canada and Spain gained large upticks (70.5% and 21.2%, respectively).

Worked Marble

Despite a major drop by the top country exporting (by volume) worked marble to the United States, the overall total of 40,049 metric tons for November 2018 marked a 13.45 increase from the same time in 2017.

Turkey took a tumble in November 2018, with its 9,356 metric tons showing a 20% decline from the previous year. Italy moved up to a close second with 9,240 metric tons (+18.8%), while India, China and Brazil all recorded double-digit increases from November 2017.

Travertine

Other Calcareous

Other Stone