U.S. Stone Imports 2011: A Little Bit Better

March 7, 2012

U.S. dimensional-stone imports provide a good indication of the domestic industry health – and, for 2011, the prognosis is good.

The customs values attached to stone shipments at U.S. ports-of-entry, along with the actual tonnage, offer clear signs of recovery. Even with several up-and-downs among different stone varieties, the basic trend is building from the lows of 2009.

However, there’s a problem with one number on the chart that might indicate either a relapse into declining market demand or a different sign of industry renewal. And it’s going to require additional monitoring through this year.

MEASURING THE RECOVERY

At the risk of beating the medical analogy to death, one of the toughest parts of this year’s review of U.S. stone imports involved … well, a chart. U.S. stone imports make up 80-percent or more of all domestic dimensional-stone use, and give the best measurement of the industry’s health. Showing the value of all dimensional-stone imports from 2000-2011 involves a line that isn’t as simple as it might seem.

Click to enlarge chartThe chart at left shows stone’s big rise and fall in the 2000s, followed by the slow recovery in the 2010s, with data from the U.S. International Trade Commission. It’s easy to fool with the vertical “x” axis and manipulate the curve to accentuate the fall and rise, which would give it a bit high of a positive cast.

On the other hand, chopping off the empty bottom area to save space gives ammunition to the people who want to cast the last few years in the worst light possible. The big up-and-down makes it look like the fall from 2007-2009 amounted to more than 75% in import value – which then translates in the pessimist’s view to stone losing 80% of business.

This isn’t the case at all; values took a big-enough drop, but 46.4% is nowhere near 75%-80%. Set the chart up wrong, however, and some numbskull will parade it as proof that the industry’s dead.

The final chart offers equal space, top and bottom, to provide a balanced view. It also shows a recent growth curve more in line with the 2000-2002 era, just before the industry went into hyperdrive.

Instead of throwing around paragraphs full of numbers (as in years past), the 2011 summary will feature a number of tables, including this one breaking down the annual value by stone type. Please note that the numbers for granite and marble feature all dimensional imports, including uncut boulders and blocks; the unfinished-material delivery isn’t a big thing with granite, but it’s a significant percentage of marble.

U.S. Dimensional Stone Imports, 2011
Granite	$1,023,890,526
Marble	$395,554,274
Travertine	$269,072,988
Other Calcareous	$89,170,115
Slate	$55,679,321
Other Stone	$175,404,793

GRANITE

First the good news, as shown with values of worked (as in cut slab or tile) granite:

Worked Granite Value
	2011	2010	Change
Brazil	$454,553,296	$413,929,094	9.8%
China	$212,233,549	$215,702,989	-1.6%
India	$157,134,151	$134,835,879	16.5%
Italy	$120,256,742	$121,204,788	-0.8%
Canada	$25,102,754	$24,386,497	2.9%
All Others	$48,250,212	$46,786,301	2.9%
Total	$1,017,530,704	$956,845,548	6.3%

Granite’s Big Four – Brazil, China, India and Italy – split 2-2 on moving up or down from 2010 levels. However, the declines from China and Italy are small at less than 2%, while Brazil and India made good gains.

Canada came in at a distant fifth, trailing Italy by $95 million. Overall, worked granite values grew faster than the inflation rate and kept on an upward track from the bottom of the market in 2009, offering continued good news.