StatWatch: Spooky October

December 17, 2015

By Emerson Schwartzkopf

Shipments of granite to the United States this October again fell well behind 2014’s pace, as the country’s main supplier – Brazil – cut back on tonnage.

October 2015 also marked a slowdown in marble and travertine imports, according to the exclusive Stone Update analysis of data from the U.S. International Trade Commission. However, quartz-slab shipments – while not on the once-record rate of monthly growth – continued with double-digit increases in import volume.

GRANITE

None of the major suppliers of “worked” (sawn, one-side-polished, etc.) granite fared well this October, leading to the almost-one-third dip in tonnage from 2014. Brazil shipped 43% less in volume, although China also stepped back 37%.

It’s worth noting that granite imports usually taper off in the fourth quarter of any year, whether the economy’s good or bad. The strength of the U.S. dollar also means exporters can either push massive amounts of material for cheap returns or pull back and wait; given the results when some sent huge shipments into the maw of the Great Recession in 2008-2009, the survivors may be playing more of a wait-and-see game.

WORKED GRANITE: U.S. IMPORTS
(metric tons)
	Oct-15	Oct-14	Change
TOTAL	139,075	207,253	-32.9%
Top Sources
Brazil	66,388	116,501	-43.0%
China	28,479	45,231	-37.0%
India	24,477	32,533	-24.8%
Italy	6,259	4,999	25.2%
Spain	6,109	3,326	83.7%
Canada	5,760	2,582	123.1%
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Stone Update* analysis*

MARBLE

A year-to-year decline of 2.5% in October worked-marble shipments to the United States, given the sector’s popularity in 2015, may be more of a hiccup than any sign of a trend.

The country to watch is Turkey for exports to the United States of marble and its calcareous cousin travertine. (Most countries lump these two together as “marble” in trade data, but the United States separates them). While the country took the lead again as the U.S. top supplier, marble shipments this October fell behind 2014 by 16.5%; travertine slumped 44.7% in year-to-year volume.

It’s worth noting that the country faces more turmoil than an uncertain economy and a strong U.S. dollar. While most marble/travertine sources are in western Turkey, its southern border is right across from the Syrian civil war and ISIS-occupied territory. The mass diaspora of Syrians also trod through Turkey on their way to refuge from the fighting.

WORKED MARBLE: U.S. IMPORTS
(metric tons)
	Oct-15	Oct-14	Change
TOTAL	30,583	31,367	-2.5%
Top Sources
Turkey	8,163	9,777	-16.5%
Italy	7,931	7,927	0.1%
China	4,449	6,736	-34.0%
India	3,273	1,496	118.8%
Brazil	2,134	949	124.9%
Spain	1,968	2,305	-14.6%
Greece	1,212	445	172.4%
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Stone Update* analysis*

QUARTZ SLABS

China and Vietnam continue to turn the wick up on shipments of quartz slabs, along with healthy growth from Spain. Nobody’s talking about a decline in demand with six million square feet of quartz coming through U.S. ports-of-entry; the major growth of non-branded material from the Pacific Rim, however, is bound to create some effect in the near-future.

For those intent on derivating something on Caesarstone from the Israeli/U.S. shipment data, October 2015’s amount varied by only 3.6% from September 2015 volume. (And, by the way, that was an increase.) If month-to-month changes remain slight, it could signal that the company is finding its stride in balancing imports with domestic production at its Richmond Hill, Ga., plant.

QUARTZ SLAB: U.S. IMPORTS
(square feet)
	Oct-15	Oct-14	Change
TOTAL	6,083,476	3,834,521	58.7%
Sources
China	2,031,772	854,051	137.9%
Spain	1,380,922	978,901	41.1%
Israel	600,077	979,257	-38.7%
Vietnam	531,112	166,431	219.1%
Canada	483,461	422,408	14.5%
India	409,782	70,826	478.6%
Italy	188,756	148,983	26.7%
Turkey	127,767	5,371	2278.8%
Korea	124,043	82,473	50.4%
Portugal	76,478	72,667	5.2%
Germany	64,088	0	N/A
Brazil	24,983	527	4636.7%
Czech Republic	18,299	20,936	-12.6%
Singapore	9,311	0	N/A
Hong Kong	9,063	21,409	-57.7%
Mexico	1,905	495	284.8%
Netherlands	1,076	0	N/A
Romania	581	0	N/A
Belgium	0	9,784	-100.0%
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Stone Update* analysis*

TRAVERTINE

TRAVERTINE: U.S. IMPORTS
(metric tons)
	Oct-15	Oct-14	Change
TOTAL	47,105	82,257	-42.7%
Top Sources
Turkey	38,389	69,105	-44.4%
Mexico	4,151	4,927	-15.7%
China	2,243	1,876	19.6%
Italy	1,486	637	133.3%
Peru	619	5,398	-88.5%
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Stone Update* analysis*

OTHER CALCAREOUS

OTHER CALCAREOUS: U.S. IMPORTS
(metric tons)
	Oct-15	Oct-14	Change
TOTAL	17,340	16,946	2.3%
Top Sources
Italy	5,853	778	652.3%
Canada	3,030	1,297	133.6%
China	2,084	4,303	-51.6%
Portugal	1,538	1,109	38.7%
Turkey	1,374	1,540	-10.8%
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Stone Update* analysis*

OTHER STONE

OTHER STONE: U.S. IMPORTS
(metric tons)
	Oct-15	Oct-14	Change
TOTAL	30,331	24,712	22.7%
Top Sources
Brazil	11,889	7,825	51.9%
India	8,037	7,379	8.9%
China	4,159	3,855	7.9%
Italy	1,394	1,083	28.7%
Canada	1,345	1,441	-6.7%
South Africa	1,204	579	107.9%
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Stone Update* analysis*

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