StatWatch May 2019: They’re Back ….
By Emerson Schwartzkopf
(Editor’s note: Changes were made in the article on July 16 to reflect a possible time loophole in quartz-surface tariffs.)
The first reaction in viewing May 2019’s data on U.S. imports of hard surfaces: Is this for real?
After watching China’s share of quartz-surface shipments drift into oblivion — from 12.9 million ft² last August to barely 30,000 ft² this April — the country reverses the flow and tops the 3 million ft² in May.
If the data from the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) is in error, it’s a doozie. (More on that in a minute.) It it’s a giant gamble from producers that the USITC would back away from 300%-plus tariiffs in May, they lost — but it’s possible they may have won a side-bet.
May also provided other interesting trends, including a progressive return of granite imports to good health; there’s also the continued depression in travertine shipments
All data is from the USITC, along with Stone Update analysis.(Comparisions with May 2018 data is shown in parentheses.)
QUARTZ SURFACES
Total: 14,211,911 ft² (+7.4%)*
Sector Leader: India, 3,734,051 ft² (+462.7%)
*provisional
Backfill: That * in May’s import total is a caution, given the massive change in China’s monthly shipments this year. As one industry observer noted, that’s like having 700+ containers of slabs appear from nowhere. Right now, the increase is enough to put the sector ahead of May 2018, when the great wave of pre-tariff Chinese exports began.
Occasionally, a rogue mistake appears in USITC data; given that the agency reports millions of numbers in all export catagories annually, that’s not surprising. The USITC’s database, Dataweb, isn’f foolproof in reporting totals, especially when it combines categories for commodity reports.
The increase also didn’t come with some kind of super-low tariff-busting customs valuation. This May’s declared value for Chinese quartz totaled $20,598,918, or $6.80 per ft². (In May 2018, the per ft² came to $7.09.)
A closer inspection of the USITC’s order in the July 5 Federal Register on tariff collections reveals a small window of time — from May 18 to July 5 — where incoming shipments and haulage out of ports may be liquidated (or declared final) “without regard” to the tariffs. Some canny Chinese producers and exporters may have wagered on a loophole in the tariff assessments.
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WORKED GRANITE
Total: 149,148 metric tons (+19.1%)
Sector Leader: Brazil, 64,158 metric tons (+3.3%)
Backfill: Worked (sawn, one-side polished) granite continues to gain in U.S. imports after falling in the doldrums for the past few years. The big jump from May 2018 comes courtesy of China with an impressive 84.5% boost in shipments.
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WORKED MARBLE
Total: 45,905 metric tons (+2.9%)
Sector Leader: Turkey, 18,349 metric tons (+15.0%)
Backfill: Double-digit growth from May 2018 in shipments from Turkey and India are nearly offset by declines from China (-45.2%) and Italy (-13.5%).
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TRAVERTINE
Total: 19,320 metric tons (-29.6%)
Sector Leader: Turkey, 13,452 metric tons (-34.8%)
Backfill: When will the decline end. Not soon, as Turkey’s shipments lag by a third from May 2018, and the amount from other countries keeps dwindling.
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OTHER CALCAREOUS
Total: 13,592 metric tons (-4.4%)
Sector Leader: Turkey, 2,467 metric tons (+18.9%)
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OTHER STONE
Total: 39,276 metric tons (-10.1%)
Sector Leader: India, 14,649 metric tons (+3.6%)
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