Mid-Year 2009 Stone Imports: Less of the Same
Evaluating by month-to-month snapshots rarely results in a clear picture of the market, though. As totals get smaller, one large shipment or project can take a month out of proportion. And, looking at succeeding months doesn’t give any scope to market performance.
Instead of concentrating solely on half-year totals – we’ll get to that a little later – let’s take a look at data by timeline during the past three years … literally from boom to bust.
When comparing all dimensional-stone import values – the amount declared when bringing the material into the U.S. – the timelines show similar patterns. While there are some variances, the general direction of down in February followed by growth through the spring runs at about the same rate.
The problem, though, is that the same trend occurs annually as the market continues to shrink. The import-value total of $163.8 million for January 2009 is only 59.5 percent of 2007’s $275.3 million. And, while the two years seem to parallel each other through six months, June 2009’s $152.8 million is barely more than half of the $292.7 million of import value in June 2007.
It’s also worth noting that June 2009’s total is less than January 2009 – something that didn’t happen in better years like 2007 – which doesn’t bode well, as demand should be up for spring and early summer construction and remodeling. The low totals in import values may also reflect higher stocks of stone, due to large amounts bought at last fall.
Import values can be manipulated with by constant price changes. The volume of stone imports is a more-tangible measure – a ton is always a ton – but comparing the first half of 2009 with the boom year of 2007 shows a wide gap in stone moving through U.S. ports-of-entry.
Frankly, the chart on “worked” (slab/tile) granite import tonnage on page xx isn’t a time line, as the results look less shocking as a comparative bar graph. It’s apparent that, even in the best months of first-half 2009, it’s a struggle to reach the halfway mark of comparable months in 2007.
For the record, worked granite imports for the first six months of this year came to 501,181 metric tons; that’s only 42.8 percent of the 1,168,778 metric tons of granite brought in for the first half of 2007.
GRANITE
Just about anyone in the stone industry would settle for getting back to last year’s level of business, let along the high point of 2007. If worked granite imports are any indication, though, the market is a large number of tall orders away from climbing to pre-meldown levels.
Granite import values added up to $347.7 million for the first half of 2009. When compared to the $603.5 million of granite brought in during January-June 2008, the dollar value of this year’s shipments is only 56.7 percent of 2008’s s totals.
