Mid-Year 2007 Stone Imports: Topping Off

As a check against any wild fluctuations in those five years, I also pulled 2006’s first-half/second-half import rates and used those to make another estimate. As the numbers from last year indicated a less-steep growth rate, they offered a possible dose of reality against some incredible historical spurts in the market.

Using the half-year averages accounts for annual construction cycles. As a result, the yearly first-half imports rates for all six stone types – granite, marble, travertine, slate, other calcareous and the omnibus of other – didn’t vary by more than seven percentage points in all but one of the 66 different classifications of material value or tonnage imported.

It’s not completely scientific, but using the half-year data should reveal a good sense of the market for all of 2007. The following are forecasts, with a 3 1/2 plus-minus margin. The test of accuracy will come next May, with a full review using actual, not estimate, figures.

GRANITE

2007 import value: Flat/slightly down
2007 import volume: Down

Granite forms the backbone of today’s U.S. dimensional-stone market. In 2007, the posture remains sure, but the wonder years of dynamic growth are on hold.

For the first half of 2007, the import value of all granite imports totaled $707.4 million, down 3.4 percent from $732.4 million for January-June 2006. That’s an abrupt change from the situation last year, when that $732.4 million half-year figure accounted for a 26.1-percent increase from the first six months of 2005.

The Big Four of granite – Brazil, China, Italy and India – maintained that order with import values through the first half of 2007. However, while Brazil and China imports increased in value from first-half 2006, it decreased from Italy and India.

Plugging in the January-June five-year (we’ll call this the “five-year” from now on, to save space) average rate, the 2007 estimate on granite-import value is $1.56 billion, or a 0.9-percent increase from 2006. Using last year’s rate, however, the estimate drops to $1.49 billion, or 3.4-percent less than 2006.

Total value is an interesting tote-sheet exercise; in actual amounts of granite imports, though, the trends point slightly down. For worked (slab/tile/finished) granite, the first-half 2007 total is 1.16-million metric tons, down from 1.2 metric tons in January-June 2006.

Of the top four countries exporting granite to the United States, both Brazil and India show reduced tonnage in first-half 2007. China’s rate is roughly the same; only Italy shows a gain through an unusually high spike in April-June 2007 imports.

Using the five-year average, the estimate for 2007 worked-granite imports is 2.49 million metric tons, down 5.4 percent from 2006. Using the import rate from last year, the total goes up slightly – 2.55 million metric tons – but that’s still a 3.2-percent drop from last year.