Mid-Year 2006 Stone Imports: Market’s Up
Maybe, just maybe, the dimensional-stone roller coaster is finally cresting the incline, and the steady growth of imports will give way to some exciting ups-and-downs before settling down on a nice, flat track.
The reality, in the first half of 2006: fat, fat chance.
Stone imports – the best indication of the U.S. stone industry’s health – continue on a contrarian track from the country’s dull housing market and tepid economy. Whether it’s granite, marble, travertine, slate or any other variation, stone remains a strong presence at U.S. ports-of-entry and, eventually, the nation’s fabrication shops.
The only problem on the horizon may be a by-product of a trade tiff between U.S. politicians and a country that’s an easy target in an election year. Some prices may go up as a result, but cost doesn’t seem to be a deterrent in today’s stone market.
MID-YEAR MUSINGS
Keeping a close eye on dimensional-stone imports is more than some kind of industry insider game. Unlike automotive manufacturing or corn growing, the stone trade offers almost no way to measure its output; an estimate on the volume or value of countertops produced every year is, at best, an educated guess.
Import figures are virtually the only statistics that track the use of stone. And, with 80 percent or better of U.S. dimensional-stone production involving imported material, it’s a good indication of where the industry’s headed.
In looking at last year’s final import numbers on stone, the final tallies looked very good, but just not quite as strong as previous years. After years of a steady boom in stone, it looked like the market just might ease up in 2006.
The main hazard in counting up the slabs and guessing about the future is that those guesses can be off. And, if the trends of the first half of 2006 continue through the rest of the year, I can admit to being wrong six months ago about being cautious. And I’ll do it with pleasure.
In a way, the cautious tone is borne out in the first half of 2006; the $1,561,172,420 of at-the-dock customs value of dimensional stone entering the United States represented a bit of a slowdown. The total accounted for an 18.7-percent growth in imports from first-half 2005; meanwhile, the growth rate from mid-year 2004 to 2005 increased by 27.3 percent.
So, the growth rate isn’t as big, but plenty of industries would be ecstatic with an increase of 18 percent. And, the slight lag in growth comes with some of the smaller categories of imported stone; the $102.2 million of other calcareous stone showed an 8.5-percent drop, while slate’s $59 million represented “only” a 13.4-percent growth rate.
