Analysis: Uncertain Future Ahead for Tariffs

By Emerson Schwartzkopf

After the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s use of federal tariff law last week, the basic question is: What happens next for hard-surface imports?

There is still plenty of uncertainty, but one thing’s for sure: Some kind of extra tariffs aren’t going away anytime soon.

The 6-3 decision by the high court Feb. 20 ends the various levels of tariffs the president imposed using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA. The court’s ruling, in plain speaking, points out that IEEPA doesn’t mention tariffs, and that the U.S. Congress holds the ultimate authority on creating new tariffs, and not the president.

Less than 24 hours after the court decision, however, the add-on tariffs came back – at least in part – under different statutes. The president set a 10% overall tariff that same night, which he hiked to 15% the next morning, under laws passed by Congress more than 50 years ago.

These are temporary and expire in 150 days and will likely face a legal challenge of the president’s actions. However, it’s certain that the president will ask the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) to authorize more-permanent Section 301 tariffs for specific countries and/or goods.

The Supreme Court sidestepped any mention of possible refunds of the IEEPA tariffs collected since late last April, since that’s the subject of lawsuits already filed in lower federal courts.

Any judgement on tariff refunds is months away and, no matter what the decision, will likely be appealed.

It’s also worth noting that refunds aren’t guaranteed to extend to the fabricator and end-user level. For example, logistics firms may handle the refund process, and those companies will get a small portion to do the job. Natural or man-made surfaces may also make several stops on the supply chain; every stop a slab makes could claim part of the refund.

With the issue still in legal limbo, those tariffs will remain as part of the cost of slabs and other materials imported before the high court’s ruling. Don’t expect the local slab yard to mark down surface prices right away. Did those tariffs impacted hard-surface imports? Our sister publication Hard-Surface Report notes that the calculated duties on hard-surfaces last year from January through November (the latest month available for data) came to $541 million dollars, a gain of more than 150%.

Much of that total came from imports of quartz surfaces, which came into the United States duty-free until last April. A prime example is the Czech Republic, where quartz surfaces comprise nearly all the surfaces going to the United States.

In January-November 2024, the country’s hard-surface tariffs totaled $891; for the same time last year, the bill came to slightly more than one million dollars.

The Supreme Court ruling doesn’t affect the “safeguard” action proposed by several U.S. quartz-surface manufacturers last fall. The USITC holds a hearing on that proposal tomorrow.