2016 Surface Imports: Not Many an “A” at 3Q

By Emerson Schwartzkopf

If anyone’s asks about provding end-of-the-year comebacks, put in a good word for U.S. hard-surface imports.

Photo by Ana Ulin - CC BY-SA 2.0Photo by Ana Ulin – CC BY-SA 2.0Barring a stunning go-ahead recovery at the finish line, tonnage for most of the sectors will likely be down, as numbers for this year’s third quarter indicate a performance that falls behind 2015 levels.

Granite, the main indicator, continues to lag, and marble now shows some weakness after nine months of imports. Quartz slabs continue to grow the market, although not as fast as 2015. And, if you feel a bit queasy, don’t ask about travertine.

Then again, 2016 certainly is the year of the unorthodox and the unexpected in the United States. Don’t count anything out until it’s over.

WORKED GRANITE

Imports of worked (sawn, one-side-polished) granite pieces took the biggest dunk, shrinking by 20% this July-September when compared to 2015. That’s a sharper drop than the 9.5% decline in this year’s second quarter. Ouch.

Some of the 100,000 metric-ton (MT) shortfall comes from a large one-time bump (35,000+ MT) in shipments from Canada in 3Q 2015 that didn’t happen again. China also came around with virtually the same amount of third-quarter shipments this year as in 2015; its 100,149 MT for 2016 bested the previous year by only 0.3%.

The biggest reason for the shortfall, though is that Brazil and India — #1 and #3 as far as countries supplying granite to the United States — shipped less. Brazil, the longtime leader in providing worked granite, shipped almost one-fifth less in 3Q 2016, and that difference is close to 50,000 MT.

Admittedly, Brazil had a lot going on in July through September, including economic and government instability (including the impeachment of its president) and, on the lighter side of distraction, the Olympics in Rio de Janeiro. The Brazilian real seems to be picking up on international monetary markets at year’s end, which might lead to some better trends for 2017.

 

WORKED GRANITE: U.S. IMPORTS 
(metric tons)      
  3Q 2016 3Q 2015 Change
TOTAL 420,616 526,118 -20.1%
Top Sources      
Brazil 201,838 250,122 -19.3%
China 100,419 100,168 0.3%
India 64,084 76,819 -16.6%
Spain 17,954 16,191 10.9%
Italy 12,560 28,019 -55.2%
Canada 10,340 46,439 -77.7%
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Stone Update analysis

 

WORKED MARBLE

Marble’s 13.6% slowdown in U.S. imports for this year’s third quarter remains somewhat of a puzzle, given the continued push for white kitchens throughout the year — but, as in this year’s second quarter, much of the decline comes from one country: Turkey.

This isn’t to pick on Turkey, as it’s had a large share of disruptions and reverses: a civil war across the border with Syria, a tense relationship with Russia, a real fight with ISIL and an abortive military coup. None of this adds up to business as usual, although a drop of more than 50% from 3Q 2015 is a large slice.

Italy occasionally suffers some trade doldrums, which hopefully is the case with its 15.3% drop in third-quarter marble shipments from last year. Luckily, China took up the slack — and them some — with more than 31,000 MT shipped to the United States in this year’s third quarter, increasing its output almost by half.

WORKED MARBLE: U.S. IMPORTS
(metric tons)      
  3Q 2016 3Q 2015 Change
TOTAL 112,737 130,463 -13.6%
Top Sources      
China 31,178 20,974 48.7%
Italy 27,716 32,737 -15.3%
Turkey 21,387 45,727 -53.2%
India 12,627 9,853 28.2%
Brazil 7,612 6,080 25.2%
Spain 4,561 7,152 -36.2%
Greece 3,730 2,553 46.1%
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Stone Update analysis

 

QUARTZ SURFACES

Quartz surfaces continue to be the best-of-breed with U.S. hard-surface imports, fueled once again by an onslaught of Chinese-made slabs. The 11.3 million ft² from China in this year’s third quarter officially gives the country more than half of the share of quartz slabs coming into the country.

Among the major quartz-slab exporting countries, only two — Israel and Canada — show a decline in third-quarter shipments to the United States. The drop for both sources aren’t a reflection of lower demand; manufacturers based is both countries continue to ramp up U.S. factories and lower the need to ship from foreign plants.

The country that’s interesting to watch in 2016, though, is Vietnam. Steady growth now make it the fourth-largest exporter of quartz surfaces to the United States, with a realistic goal of passing Israel for third place in 2017.

QUARTZ SLAB: U.S. IMPORTS 
(square feet)      
  3Q 2016 3Q 2015 Change
TOTAL 22,550,812 17,863,962 26.2%
China 11,315,528 6,492,397 74.3%
Spain 3,738,206 3,528,923 5.9%
Israel 2,009,028 2,401,555 -16.3%
Vietnam 1,501,209 1,249,850 20.1%
Canada 1,467,690 1,527,860 -3.9%
India 929,398 865,450 7.4%
Turkey 487,852 315,393 54.7%
Italy 428,780 471,814 -9.1%
Portugal 178,250 237,355 -24.9%
Korea 154,753 329,365 -53.0%
Czech Republic 85,347 156,808 -45.6%
Germany 79,222 185,979 -57.4%
Brazil 48,771 50,214 -2.9%
Singapore 47,985 0 N/A
Hong Kong 40,612 4,349 833.9%
Lebanon 12,831 0 N/A
Mexico 11,743 22,540 -47.9%
Switzerland 5,468 0 N/A
Saudi Arabia 2,153 0 N/A
Uruguay 1,981 0 N/A
Australia 1,938 0 N/A
Mauritania 936 0 N/A
Netherlands 657 0 N/A
Colombia 366 4,370 -91.6%
United Kingdom 108 0 N/A
Ecuador 0 6,200 N/A
Belgium 0 5,823 N/A
Oman 0 3,251 N/A
Romania 0 2,551 N/A
Sweden 0 883 N/A
Taiwan 0 721 N/A
Mauritius 0 312 N/A
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Stone Update analysis

 

TRAVERTINE

The best thing that can be said about U.S. imports of travertine in July-September is that shipments from the #2 supplier, Mexico, fell by less than 2% from 3Q 2015. Yes, that’s really the best.

The less-than-comfortable truth is that Turkey, which ships more than two-thirds of travertine passing U.S. ports-of-entry, dropped its flow to the United States by more than half. Along with weak 3Q performances from Italy and China, overall travertine imports fell 49.2% from last year’s third quarter.

TRAVERTINE: U.S. IMPORTS  
(metric tons)      
  3Q 2016 3Q 2015 Change
TOTAL 111,702 220,032 -49.2%
Top Sources      
Turkey 86,699 187,997 -53.9%
Mexico 15,451 15,736 -1.8%
Italy 5,073 9,174 -44.7%
China 2,288 3,244 -29.5%
Peru 1,187 2,220 -46.5%
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Stone Update analysis

 

OTHER CALCAREOUS

OTHER CALCAREOUS: U.S. IMPORTS 
(metric tons)      
  3Q 2016 1Q 2017 Change
TOTAL 40,626 49,917 -18.61%
Top Sources      
China 9,139 10,136 -9.84%
Italy 6,760 7,536 -10.30%
Canada 4,874 13,728 -64.50%
Turkey 4,335 5,427 -20.12%
Portugal 3,439 4,362 -21.16%
Spain 2,005 4,636 -56.75%
Dominican Rep 1,689 1,510 11.85%
France 1,641 1,486 10.43%
Mexico 1,216 1,096 10.95%
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Stone Update analysis

 

OTHER STONE

OTHER STONE: U.S. IMPORTS 
(metric tons)      
  3Q 2016 3Q 2015 Change
TOTAL 118,822 96,124 23.6%
Top Sources      
Brazil 55,056 34,389 60.1%
India 27,631 22,737 21.5%
China 14,135 14,593 -3.1%
Italy 8,511 12,157 -30.0%
Canada 4,079 4,084 -0.1%
Mexico 2,041 1,693 20.6%
South Africa 1,869 1,478 26.5%
Dominican Rep 1,348 909 48.3%
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Stone Update analysis

 

SLATE

SLATE: U.S. IMPORTS  
(U.S. dollars)      
  3Q 2016 3Q 2015 Change
TOTAL $15,085,788 $16,864,710 -10.5%
Top Sources      
China $8,139,073 $9,809,628 -17.0%
India $3,794,586 $3,872,510 -2.0%
Brazil $1,457,419 $1,866,646 -21.9%
Italy $371,906 $249,590 49.0%
United Kingdom $363,759 $261,648 39.0%
Canada $330,615 $318,004 4.0%
Venezuela $218,282 0 N/A
Spain $151,326 $180,200 -16.0%
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Stone Update analysis

Get the news of the industry with Slab & Sheet, the e-newsletter from Stone Update. Sign up for free delivery here.

For the latest industry info, check Stone Update on Twitter and Facebook.